El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could combine forces to cause abnormally warm and dry weather over large areas of Australia this winter.
Maximum temperatures are expected to be higher than average over most of Australia this winter, particularly during the second half of the season if El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole become entrenched.
By contrast, minimum temperatures could be lower than average for some parts of Australia this winter, particularly over the central and south-east inland. These lower minimums increase the risk of frost.
Warm days and cold, frosty nights are typical during El Niño and positive IOD winters.
The Bureau of Meteorology said June to August maximum temperatures were likely to very likely to be warmer than median (60 per cent to greater than 80 per cent chance) for almost all of Australia.
Above median June to August minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60 per cent to greater than 80 per cent chance) for much of Australia, with below median minimum temperatures likely (60 to 80 per cent chance) for southern parts of the Northern Territory and Queensland, as well as western NSW and eastern South Australia.
Winter rainfall is expected to be lower-than-average for most of Australia this winter.
BOM says for June to August, below median rainfall is likely to very likely (60 per cent to greater than 80 per cent chance) for almost all of Australia.
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