The winter long-range forecast shows warmer-than-usual daytime temperatures are likely almost everywhere, and warmer nights are also likely for many areas.
BOM extended prediction technical lead Catherine Ganter said there was a high chance of below-average rainfall, particularly in southern areas of Australia.
“Southern areas have at least twice the normal chance of winter rainfall falling in the bottom 20 per cent of records,” Ms Ganter said.
She said with drier conditions forecast, the risk of frost during winter, which is most common for southern and central Australia, was heightened for inland southern areas.
“Even though average minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be warmer than usual this winter, there will still be times of cold wintry conditions,” Ms Ganter said.
“This can increase the frost risk when there are still nights that are clear of cloud cover.”
The winter long-range forecast reflects several climate influences, including the chance of El Niño forming in the Pacific Ocean, signs of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) forming in winter and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures across Australia.
BOM remains at El Niño Watch, which means there’s about double the usual chance of an El Niño event.
While the models show it is likely the tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures will reach El Niño levels during winter, a shift in the tropical atmosphere is also needed for BOM to declare an El Niño event.
Ms Ganter said any change to the El Niño Watch status would not change the long-range forecast, which was already trending towards warm and dry for most of Australia.
AUTUMN SUMMARY
The Bureau of Meteorology says:
- Australia's autumn rainfall was about 10 per cent below the 1961-1990 average.
- Each state and territory had below-average rainfall overall, except Western Australia with around six per cent above average rainfall for autumn.
- Australia had its second-driest May since national rainfall records began in 1900, with rainfall about 73 per cent below the 1961-1990 average.
- While Australia's autumn rainfall was very much below average in some areas, Tropical Cyclone Ilsa brought above-average rainfall to parts of the north, west and into South Australia.
- Australia had its coolest autumn since 2012, with an average temperature equal to the 1961-1990 average for autumn.
- Water storages along eastern Australia remain at about 90 per cent.
- Most water storages in the north are close to full after the northern wet season.
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