Summer will sizzle

The outlook map shows heightened threats across Western Australia’s southern coast, remote communities in the Northern Territory and roughly half of Victoria.

Northern Victoria residents can breathe a little easier, as it has not been flagged as a bushfire hotspot. But parts of the north-east are at heightened risk.

Emergency Management Victoria said lack of rainfall across most of western and north-eastern Victoria, parts of greater Melbourne, Mornington Peninsula and south-west Gippsland had resulted in a high fuel load and an increased chance of fires.

The rest of the state is forecast to be at a normal risk, which means fires can still occur and fast running fires are possible on hot, dry and windy days.

National Emergency Management Agency deputy co-ordinator-general Joe Buffone said Australia will potentially have a wetter December and hotter than average summer.

“You’re going to hear about cyclones, you’re going to hear about flooding, you’re going to hear about severe weather, you’re going to hear about heatwaves, and in particular, you’re going to hear about the fire risk,” he said.

Bureau of Meteorology climate monitoring manager Karl Braganza said a dangerous factor of heatwaves was the lack relief at night.

“The elevated overnight temperatures can have quite a large impact on health, because you don't tend to cool off overnight,” he said.

The warmer oceans around the country would increase humidity and cause heavier rainfall, which were already happening, Dr Braganza said.

BOM meteorologist Keris Arndt said low soil-moisture levels and above-average temperatures should put people on watch for both flash flooding and fires.

“All Victorians need to prepare for a multi-hazard event, whether it be bushfire, storm, flash flooding and potential riverine flooding if we get extensive rainfall over an extended period,” he said.

Five years on from the Black Summer bushfires, Mr Buffone said while the community needed to be vigilant, the 2024 season was not expected to be as extreme.

“If you think about Black Summer, there was 3000km of fire front on the east coast.

“It’s unlikely that we’re going to experience something of that sort of significance, but locally and in those areas there is a risk of increased fire.”

Victoria’s emergency services say they are well prepared for the potential of fires, with at least 54 dedicated aircraft positioned across the state. This includes a mix of water bombing, air supervision and air intelligence gathering aircraft, which can be moved quickly, according to risk.

Returning this year are two large air tankers, which can operate from smaller regional airports as they require less room for take-off and landing, making them more agile to move around the state. Two Aircranes are also contracted to join the fleet once their service period in North America concludes.

The aerial firefighting fleet will support the efforts of thousands of personnel from across CFA, Forest Fire Management Victoria, Fire Rescue Victoria, VICSES and other agencies and a firefighting fleet of trucks, heavy machinery and plant equipment.

– with AAP.