The deluge came the day after the Bureau of Meteorology lifted its El Niño rating, with the warning Australia now had a 70 per cent chance of entering the drier and warmer weather pattern.
Strathbogie bore the brunt of the downpour, recording 92.8mm of rain in the 24 hours from 9am on Wednesday, June 7 to 9am on Thursday, June 8.
It brought Strathbogie’s total rainfall for the first 11 days of winter to 131.8mm, and prompted minor to moderate flood warnings for the Seven and Castle creeks at, and downstream of, Euroa.
Minor flood alerts were also issued for the Goulburn River between Lake Eildon and Seymour, and for the Broken River downstream of Benalla.
These warnings were all lifted over the weekend, with no further rain and stream levels falling.
Other impressive figures from last week’s rainfall were: Shepparton 54.8mm (76.4mm total for the first 11 days of June); Echuca 44mm (57.1mm); Kyabram 53.2mm (64.6mm); Tatura 67.8mm (82.8mm); Benalla 47.3mm (63.5); Kerang 47mm (42.2mm); and Mangalore 61.4mm (78.6mm).
Lower falls were recorded at Yarrawonga 19mm (32.8mm) and Deniliquin 31.6mm (43.4mm).
BOM says 70 per cent chance of El Niño
Meanwhile, Australia is most likely headed for an El Niño weather pattern, meaning hotter and drier conditions in the country’s east than have been felt for several years.
The Bureau of Meteorology is now forecasting a 70 per cent chance of El Niño occurring and on June 6 officially raised its outlook from ‘watch’ to ‘alert’.
During El Niño, there is a higher chance of drier weather in eastern Australia, and the southern two-thirds of the country are likely to be warmer than usual.
Bureau senior climatologist Catherine Ganter said climate models and indicators pointed to El Niño occurring, including warmer temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
“While our El Niño alert criteria have been met, these changes will need to strengthen and sustain themselves over a longer period for us to consider an El Niño event,” Ms Ganter said.
As well as less rainfall in eastern Australia, during El Niño the country can expect to see increased bushfire danger, increased risk of extreme heat, decreased alpine snow depths, a later start to the northern wet season and reduced tropical cyclone numbers.
Earlier this year it was confirmed the sister weather pattern La Niña, which brings wetter conditions to Australia's east, had ended after three years — during which the country experienced record floods.
El Niño occurs on average every three to five years and relates to changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean that affect global weather.
Ms Ganter said it was very likely the tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures would reach El Niño levels during winter.
“The bureau’s long-range winter forecast is for drier and warmer conditions across almost all of Australia and the climate conditions in the Pacific Ocean are already factored into our forecasts,” she said.
“The long-range forecast for winter also shows an increased chance of below average rainfall for almost all of Australia and the move to El Niño alert does not change this forecast.”
ABARES predicts drier conditions will drive down overall agricultural production. See page 17.
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