Grain farmers in northern Victoria have taken little comfort from last weekend’s rain, with most crops now entering the critical stage of ending their flowering and filling out seed heads.
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Most of the Goulburn Valley received less than 10mm in the week leading up to Thursday, October 10 after predictions of heavier falls on the weekend of October 5-6.
Falls up to 15mm were recorded in the south of the region.
Dookie-based agronomist Bruce Larcombe said most grain crops east of Shepparton were currently ‘sitting on a knife edge’ as they awaited more rain.
Mr Larcombe said locals were still praying for rain.
“The crops are hanging on well and we could have an excellent season,” Mr Larcombe said.
“They are filling out well, despite a bit of frost damage at the moment.
“We are just looking for the rain to finish them off.”
Mr Larcombe said the recent cool weather had helped, with probes recording enough current soil moisture.
The AgVic website said the dry September in the state’s north had seen crops and pastures rapidly using up their soil moisture.
Soil samples at Elmore and Goorambat were 17 and 57 per cent drier than usual, respectively, at the start of October while Greta was closer to normal.
The AgVic report - based on BOM data - assessed from 12 climate models that Victoria has ‘increased chances’ of a wetter season, but confidence in that forecast was low given the poor form of models in recent months.
“Temperatures are likely to be warmer for the next three months,” the report said.
Mr Larcombe said Victoria had benefited from quite productive seasons in the past few years.
“We have had some pretty good seasons in a row now, so this is the driest spring we’ve had in a few years,” he said.
“We are hoping one day the rain will happen – we certainly want it.”
A local wheat crop starting to use up its soil moisture.
AgVic’s forecast summary
• Previous months’ predictions for being wetter have not come to fruition.
• Most models still predicting increased chance of wetter in future, but confidence is low based on recent performance.
• Progress towards a La Niña still very slow.
• Oceans are warmer to the north of Australia, but connections to tropical moisture are being hampered by unhelpful pressure positioning.
