According to the Bureau of Meteorology, the oceanic and atmospheric indicator values have returned to ENSO-neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña), ending the 2022-23 La Niña responsible for last spring’s extended rainfall.
El Niño typically brings severe droughts and high temperatures.
Victoria Drought Resilience Adoption and Innovation Hub head Professor Michael Tausz said El Niño watch meant the BOM estimated a 50 per cent chance of El Niño patterns developing.
“The last El Niño in 2015 brought severe drought to Victoria, Tasmania, southern South Australia and tropical Queensland,” Prof Tausz said.
“La Niña typically brings strong, episodic rainfall and floods, but severe drought and heat is now as likely in neutral conditions as in El Niño.
“The most recent droughts and severe bushfires happened during neutral conditions.”
Most models suggest ENSO will remain neutral during autumn.
The Vic Hub wants farmers to be prepared for the change to El Niño watch.
Prof Tausz said the Vic Hub was working to make relevant information available and supported projects developing or demonstrating options to increase drought resilience and preparation.
“An uncertain period has already begun with the demise of La Niña, and now is a good time to think about drought preparedness, seek out new information and revisit drought plans,” he said.
“Our work is all about helping connect Victorian farmers and farming communities with knowledge that will help their businesses survive well through drought by being prepared.”
The Vic Hub uses a four-phase drought-cycle model to guide planning and decision making.
“It will be important to revisit decision-making triggers, thinking about when to decide to do something different from what was originally planned for the season ahead.”
He said the Federal Government’s Future Drought Fund connected farmers to drought resilience innovations and was key to the Vic Hub’s existence.
The Vic Hub’s website provides the Future Drought Fund ’s drought self-assessment tool that can help farmers determine their risks and guide farm planning.
It also provides climate information and projections for every location.
“I encourage people to also seek out information on the many projects running throughout the Vic Hub that are working to improve drought resilience relevant to their industry and region,” Prof Tausz said.
“It makes sense to take a long-term approach in this changing climatic environment and those actions can start today.”
For further information, visit: vicdroughthub.org.au
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