Three consecutive La Ninã weather events have taken their toll on Australia’s cherry production, with continuing wet conditions expected to impact the outlook for the coming harvest, Rabobank says in a new industry report.
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This would not only weigh on grower returns, but could also affect the availability, quality and price of the festive fruit favourite for Australian consumers, the agribusiness bank said.
In the report, Southern Hemisphere Cherries, Growing Exports and Challenges, Rabobank said Australia’s sweet cherry sector had been in a growth phase for the past four years, with more than 450,000 additional cherry trees reaching bearing age since 2018.
Despite this growth in plantings, sweet cherry production and export volumes “continue to be affected by three consecutive La Ninã weather events”, the bank said
This impact was evident last season, report co-author Pia Piggott said, with the industry estimating that Australia’s total cherry production for 2021-22 was down 15 per cent on the previous year, at 17,000 tonnes.
Total Australian cherry volumes to export markets — which require the highest-quality premium fruit — decreased 20 per cent on the previous year.
“The major cherry-production states of NSW and Victoria were particularly affected by cherry splitting caused by above-average rainfall in November 2021, resulting in the volume of exports from these states being down by 51 per cent and 32 per cent year-on-year respectively,” Ms Piggott said.
“The combination of adverse weather events in Australia, together with transport and logistical challenges during the 2021-22 cherry season, saw decreased exports to key markets — particularly to China, where exports fell 68 per cent year-on-year.”
This year’s crop
Ms Piggott said there was an increased likelihood of a wet harvest which could cause splitting in this year’s cherry crop.
“This could see reduced local availability of the fruit for Australian consumers and lower volumes for export coming out of NSW, Victoria and Tasmania — states which between them account, on average, for 81 per cent of Australia’s cherry production,” she said.
“With peak domestic cherry consumption coinciding with Christmas, late season rain will likely cause lower-than-average supply of the festive fruit, supporting higher prices for growers, but potentially seeing shoppers pay more.”
Export value
Ms Piggott said export markets were particularly important for Australia’s cherry industry, due to “higher unit value” obtainable for exported fruit.
“Exports account for approximately 25 per cent of the Australian cherry industry’s sales volumes, but almost 40 per cent of sale value,” she said.
“So lower volumes of high-quality cherries suitable for export markets ... means margins will be challenged for the sector this coming season.”