ABARES executive director Jared Greenville said the release of the ABARES Agricultural Commodities and Crop Reports on September 5 showed the sector was remaining strong despite challenging conditions.
“For agriculture, after a record $92 billion result in the 2022-23 financial year, the forecast 14 per cent decrease will see value fall to $80 billion in 2023-24 because of drier domestic conditions and an expected fall in global commodity prices,” Dr Greenville said.
“As we come out of a higher rainfall La Niña period and move into a drier El Niño climate, it is expected that below-average rainfall and warmer temperatures will reduce Australian crop yields and production from the previous year’s record highs.
“Total crop production value is set to fall 20 per cent in 2023-24 to $46 billion.
“National winter crop production is expected to be around 45.2 million tonnes, slightly below the 10-year average.
“Drier conditions are so far having the greatest impact on northern cropping areas, with prospects for the southern cropping regions holding up after better-than-expected winter rainfall.
“It is also expected that summer crop plantings will fall from last year but remain above average, due to lower rainfall forecast for spring and summer being buffered by high levels of water storages.”
Dr Greenville said drier conditions also meant livestock producers would need to send more animals to slaughter.
“As supply increases, saleyard prices for cattle and sheep are expected to fall; sheep prices are forecast to fall below their long-term average,” he said.
“At the same time, global meat prices are falling. These factors will mean despite higher production volumes, the value of livestock production is expected to fall by $1.6 billion to $34 billion in 2023-24.
“Production and prices outcomes will also weigh on export performance with the value of agricultural exports expected to decrease by 17 per cent to $65 billion.
“Farmers are also facing elevated input costs across key inputs such as fertiliser, diesel and labour. High interest rates are also increasing the costs of debt repayments.
“Despite all the challenges, it is important to remember that falls are coming off the back of record years which have helped rebuild financial reserves and our agricultural sector remains resilient and competitive.”
The Agricultural Commodities Report September can be read here: https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/agricultural-outlook
The Australian Crop Report September can be read here: https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/agricultural-outlook/australian-crop-report
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