While demand remains vulnerable to macroeconomic fluctuations and policy changes, seafood is poised to surpass poultry as the leading contributor to global protein supply growth.
Report lead author, RaboResearch senior protein analyst Angus Gidley-Baird, said production in many regions and species will reach a turning point, with aquaculture and wild catch leading growth.
“The year 2025 marks a pivotal moment for production across various regions and commodities,” he said.
“Overall production is set to grow slightly faster than in 2024, driven by aquaculture, wild catch, and poultry.
“Seafood and pork are expected to transition from contraction to growth, while beef will move from growth to contraction, reshaping market dynamics and supply chains.”
The Rabobank report said aquaculture and wild catch are projected to grow by 2.3 per cent year-on-year, rebounding from a 0.3 per cent decline in 2024.
Poultry will continue its steady growth, while beef production will decline due to contractions in major regions.
Pork production will be up marginally (0.1 per cent) after significant growth from 2021 to 2023 following recovery from African swine fever.
Australian outlook
The Rabobank report said Australian beef production will remain high, but lamb volumes will decrease from record levels.
Mr Gidley-Baird said beef production hit a new record last year and is likely to stay high.
Australian beef production reached a record 690,694 million tonnes cwt (carcase weight) in Q3 2024.
“Although some parts of south-eastern Australia and the west were dry in 2024, successive favourable seasons allowed the cattle inventory to reach what we believe to be the next cyclical peak, and the higher cattle numbers are now flowing through into higher slaughter numbers,” he said.
“In 2024, cattle slaughter jumped an estimated 19 per cent to 8.3 million head and production rose 17 per cent to 2.6 million tonnes.”
RaboResearch expects production and slaughter numbers to remain very similar in 2025 and exports to remain at high levels as a result.
Cattle on feed reached a record 1.4 million head in Q3 2024. However, with demand for high-priced long-fed cattle softer, 2025 may see an increase in shorter feeding programs that raises grain-fed beef volumes but reduces marbling characteristics.
Higher cattle inventories will likely lift live cattle exports in 2025.
Mr Gidley-Baird said though Australian cattle prices emerged from the lows of 2023, they remained relatively range-bound through most of 2024.
“Favourable seasonal conditions in 2025 would support cattle prices, with stronger global markets driving potential upside.”
The bank said lamb supplies are down from records, which is providing support for prices.
“After record lamb production in the first half of 2024, volumes started to recede through the second half of the year,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
“In Q3, lamb slaughter volumes dropped four per cent year-on-year.”
He said uncertainty about how many lambs will be available in the 2024-25 season lingers in the market, but elevated sheep slaughter throughout 2023 and 2024 suggests lower availability.
“However, poor seasonal conditions have prevented producers from finishing lambs within normal time frames, masking the impacts of lower breeding numbers.
“We believe there is still a volume of lambs yet to come to the market, though it is unlikely to be significant enough to translate to substantially lower lamb prices.”
RaboResearch expects lamb production in 2025 to decline from 2024 levels and prices to hold and then increase from current levels.
Mr Gidley-Baird said the lower volumes will likely also mean increased supply variability throughout the year.
