“Reductions in China, Europe and New Zealand are also likely, and Australia may be the only top-10 beef-producing nation to post year-over-year production gains in 2025,” the report said.
While North American cattle prices have been high for close to two years as a result of lower cattle numbers and strong consumer demand, other regions around the world have experienced low cattle prices.
“This trend has started to change as declines in global beef supply start to firm up support for cattle prices in South America, Australia and New Zealand,” the report said.
With available supplies altered across the top global beef markets, beef trade is expected to shift dramatically.
“We anticipate Australian beef producers will increasingly depend on exports to absorb stronger domestic production, while Brazil will see global markets as a better demand opportunity compared to lacklustre domestic demand,” report lead author and RaboResearch senior animal protein analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said.
The report said global beef production had the potential to swing dramatically if weather patterns change.
“US producers are waiting on more dependable precipitation to rebuild the herd, and Brazilian production is being slowed by rain delaying the supply of cattle fattened on pasture.”
Australia has maintained relatively adequate rainfall for the past few years, but the threat of dryness could lead to more production (as producers are forced to turn off more stock).
However, when it comes to weather for 2025, the forecasts suggest a favourable season, Mr Gidley-Baird said.
Australia
Australia continues to produce and export record volumes of cattle while prices hold, the report says.
Quarter three production volumes for Australia showed a new record for the quarter, Mr Gidley-Baird said, up 17 per cent. Higher slaughter numbers had been the main contributor to this growth in production — up 19 per cent.
Mr Gidley-Baird said the female proportion of total slaughter numbers remained above 50 per cent.
“This would normally indicate liquidation of the herd. However, RaboResearch believes this higher proportion reflects the high number of cattle in the systems and the reduced need for replacement cattle,” he said.
The higher beef production volumes have led to Australia setting new monthly export records, the report said.
“In October, a new record of 130,000 mt shipped weight was exported, surpassing the previous record set in July,” it said.
Mr Gidley-Baird said the US was taking a large chunk of these exports, with 29 per cent of total volumes heading there in the first 10 months of the year.
Despite the record production volumes, Australian cattle prices have been holding steady, the report said.
Cattle prices softened slightly in mid-November, Mr Gidley-Baird said, potentially reflecting an easing back in demand from processors with exports approaching safeguard thresholds.
“However, with safeguards resetting at the beginning of [2025] and declining cattle volumes from Brazil and the US, RaboResearch believes prices should hold into the new year,” he said.
