While climate forecasting models are predicting a warmer spring, reasonable winter rains have wetted up the soil profile and irrigated fodder and grain crops have access to full storages.
Goulburn-Murray Water irrigation districts all have 100 per cent allocations of high security water, as of last Friday, September 15.
Seasonal risk agronomist with Agriculture Victoria, Dale Grey, said the weak El Niño is expected to continue through spring and most models he monitors were predicting drier and warmer conditions for spring.
He said the seasonal break came through in April, followed by a dry May, allowing farmers to plant their crops in a timely fashion.
The soil profiles filled in wetter weather in June, leading to a loss of some crops in lower lying areas, but drying out in July and August which were drier than average.
Weather conditions had created good conditions for drying fodder crops.
“Every bit of rain we get will save the soil moisture we have got and for the grain filling period for crops. It will get the fodder crops through to cutting time,” Mr Grey said.
“Normally we’re getting into cutting hay in the first week of October, but with the warm spring it may come forward to the end of September.
Croppers will be watching for drier weather and frosts, which could still damage some crops.
The weekly Dairy Australia report noted that pastures remain green and are supplying green feed options for livestock and dairy herds.
Some oats sown for hay production in north-eastern Victoria have been supported by the wet and warmer conditions, but the conditions are not yet dry enough to cut it for silage and too early for hay, so they have become grazing pastures.
Crops around Waaia were cut and baled last week under good conditions with excellent yields.
Grain crops continue to show favourable growth and potential, with growers expecting an above average harvest as long as frosts are at a minimum.
Pasture hay was selling between $290 and $340 tonne last week.
The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting warmer and drier conditions across south-eastern Australia from October to December.
Meanwhile, the Rabobank global dairy report says Australian milk production turned positive in May, posting the first month-on-month growth since mid-2021.
Growth continued in June, increasing by 1.2 per cent, and bringing national production for the 2022-23 season to 8.129 billion litres, down five per cent year-on-year.
Rabobank expects milk supply to expand by two per cent in the 2023-24 season (which began on July 1), supported by healthy on-farm profit margins and overall ample feed and irrigation water availability.
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