In NAB’s harvest forecast, wheat was singled out as the bumper crop of 2020-21 with production expected to reach 27.6 million tonnes.
NAB agribusiness economist Phin Ziebell said Australian growers were on track for a very good season in the east and a reasonable season in the west ``with some exceptions due to storm damage”.
“While we are sceptical as to whether global prices will stay so high, the news for Australian wheat prices is positive overall,” he said.
Barley prices are not performing as well, reflective of China’s trade restrictions, and it is expected most barley will remain in storage.
Mr Ziebell said global grain prices had surged during the past two months due to increasing supply concerns across a number of regions.
“A situation well timed for Australia, with big crops hitting export markets over the next three months,” the NAB economist said.
In Victoria growers are reporting an excellent crop across canola, barley, beans, wheat and others, with some saying it’s the best they’ve seen since 2016 and others the best in 50 years.
In northern NSW where harvest began early, grain continues to come off in line with expectations.
NAB WA agribusiness bank executive Jeff Pontifex said after an early start and good signs in October, WA’s harvest was interrupted by rain.
“Widespread rain two weeks ago put a hold on harvest across the state and there is some concern around the quality of wheat post-rain,” Mr Pontifex said.
NAB Northern SA bank executive Hugh Bailey said while the SA harvest was looking mixed, some areas were expecting “very high yields”.
“Frost and rain events in some areas have affected the quality of crops still in the ground,” Mr Bailey said.
Queensland remains a mixed bag after dry conditions and patchy rainfall created below-average conditions.
